Kurt Jetta, PhD is the executive chairman and founder of TABS and lead product developer for TABS Analytics, a technology-enabled retail and consumer analytics firm. Here, he discusses findings from the TABS Analytics’ 11th Annual Vitamin Study.
NIE: Do your consumer survey data (from your TABS Analytics’ 11th Annual Vitamin Study) track (well) with natural channel purchase/scan data, and how so?
Jetta: Generally yes, although it’s difficult to get a solid read. SPINS is a projection of the natural channel, which doesn’t include Whole Foods. Certainly our trends have tracked well over the last 10 years. We identified a bit of under-projection in 2015/16 when we included a validation exercise in our webinar.
NIE: Of the heavy users, what are the additional types of products they are purchasing?
Jetta: Clustered around Specialty Supps (e.g. Co-Q10, melatonin) and Herbal Supps (all types). In general they just buy a lot of everything.
NIE: Understanding that calcium is a mature category, do you have addenda comments or analysis as to why older women are abandoning this mineral?
Jetta: Nothing definitive, but there has been some negative research on the efficacy of calcium. That, historically, has negatively impacted specific types. Vitamin E, for example, never really recovered from negative research done in early 2000s. Other factors are that these are national brand items that have not received significant support recently. OsCal, Citrical, Caltrate and Viactiv have been relegated as maintenance brands by their owners, it would seem.
NIE: What about older men over the last several years (re calcium)?
Jetta: Nothing interesting to report. The action was among younger men, and I don’t know the reason for that. Our survey is designed to answer the ‘What’ and provides some clues to the “Why’s” by looking at certain demo groups or corroboration with other sources, but we don’t explicitly ask “Why” questions.
NIE: Understanding that fish oil is a mature category, do you have addenda comments or analysis as to why older women are abandoning this category?
Jetta: Usually most of these upswings in trends are a function of PR and press coverage of health benefits, and when that stops the marginal users leave (as marginal users do) but the buyer base doesn’t get replenished with new marginal users. We saw it with melatonin, which is now in its second high cycle (late SC/early 2000s) was cycle No. 1. Probiotics is another one that appears to be sliding.
NIE: Do you have survey data re breakdown of fish oil, e.g. krill oil, DHĀR, calamari oil, cod liver oil? Are declines seen in these subcategories as well?
Jetta: From other sources we see that the decline is fairly broad across all essential fatty acids.
NIE: What about older men over the last several years?
Jetta: Gradual and consistent gains in new Male 55+ users. Much of the growth is driven by men’s multivitamins, which then get further targeted to Men’s 55+ or Men’s Senior Multis.
NIE: For B vitamins, where is the biggest growth, individual Bs (like B12) or B-complex Bs?
Jetta: B-12 is the biggest driver of vitamin B growth.
NIE: For vitamin D, where is the biggest growth, vitamin A and D oils? Vitamin D3?
Jetta: Vitamin D-3 is the growth. Vitamin A and A/D are very small and have decreased over time.
NIE: When you say “assortment and merchandizing geared towards heavy buyers only,” do you mean positioning on shelf or store (end-caps) or selling in gift baskets and bundles?
Jetta: No, I’m referring to the self-inflicted pain—and ultimate suicide: Specialty retailers across most sectors, not just supps, [continue to offer] brands and price points that appeal to mainstream buyers, that tend to be lighter buyers. How many more Category Killers will perish before there is a realization that “unique-items and brands” as their sole point of differentiation is a path to their ultimate demise?
NIE: Please provide your projections for 2019.
Jetta: Latest trends are consistent with our projection of +4-5 percent growth. If anything I believe there is upside as e-commerce expands their penetration among category users. Higher e-commerce sales correlates with accelerated growth of categories; it’s not a fixed pie.
